Market Update and Model Portfolio Reviews 02/28/2023
By Dustin Latham, CFA, CAIA, CRPC
March 1, 2023
DISCLOSURE (Click links for sources. If in print, sources available upon request). Calculations & Definitions available upon request. *Trailing returns as of 02/28/2023 and are annualized returns if over 1-Year. See “Model Disclosure” page for important disclosures and information – Total Period Measured 12/31/2016 – 02/28/2023. “Inception” refers to Inception to Date. Inception calculation assumes end of day market prices on 12/30/2016 for starting period values to calculate Inception to Date figures. Performance presented net of highest advisory fee. Views and opinions are of Alternative Capitalis, LLC and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation(s). The results do not represent actual trading and actual results may significantly differ from the theoretical results presented. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Global Equities softened in February down -2.76% but remain positive on the year up 4.38%. Domestic equities also gave back some of their January returns in February down -2.44% and still up 3.69% through the second month of the year. Emerging Markets sold off more noticeably by -5.57% while still up modestly 0.72% on the year. The Treasury yield curve (interest rates) moved higher in February. With yields moving inversely to price, prices were generally lower for most fixed income with Domestic Investment Grade Bonds down -2.22% in February.
See, “Headline Economic & Market Data - Data Links” at end of report for more information about the data sources.
February started as Risk-On across markets but quickly changed gears to the downside. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 0.25% to a range of 4.50-4.75% marking the eighth increase in as many meetings totaling 4.5% of total rate increase for this tightening cycle. Fed Funds Futures are now pricing in three more interest rate hikes, totaling 0.75% by June 14, which would put a peak rate at 5.25-5.50%. This interest rate hiking cycle has now outpaced that of the tightening cycle before the great financial crisis and marking the largest and fastest interest rate hiking pace since 1981. The Federal Reserves preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, was up 0.60% on the month (January), increasing concerns of inflation persisting and therefore further interest rate hikes. On March 16, we will get another interest rate decision along with the first of four summary of economic projections. The market will eye the updated projections of the Federal Funds rate to gain an insights to where and when the peak rate might land. We continue to keep an eye on housing, not only for the obvious large weighting to the economy (as measured in GDP and overall inflation), but what it might mean for another round of inflationary pressures. Housing data is lagged as reported in the headline inflation data. As the figures above for month over month pending home sales indicate that any drop in mortgage rates draws buyers back off the sidelines with a very tight inventory of housing relative to other economic cycles. There continues to be justification of avoiding a recession or managing a soft landing as various industries experience slowdowns albeit not on a synchronized basis. A risk hidden in plain sight is conflating mixed data with the overall lagged monetary policy effects setting in, which is a fancy way of rationalizing investor complacency. If it is not now obvious in the data, then why interpret the data as anything less than its face value? The most vulnerable parts of the economy continue to show signs of weakening.
The models outperformed their Domestic and Global benchmarks in February and marked the most active updates over the course of a month to the portfolio strategies since inception. A combination of rising rates, along with a dramatic repricing higher in risk assets over a short period of time played into the varying adjustments and changes throughout the month. Following is a summary of changes over the month which can be further summarized as selling equity winners earlier in the month and adding fixed income exposures after the second week of the month. The relative outperformance was driven by raising cash earlier in the month, while adding to fixed income exposures which did not materially change the results in relative terms at month end. Price continues to be our catalyst for change in the model strategies as we exercise patience while the impacts of tightening monetary policy fully grasp the economy into a broad slowdown. We continue positioning to Risk-Off while favoring cash and equivalents (alternative) with ultra short maturity Treasuries, while incrementally adding more interest rate sensitivity to longer dated Treasuries if/when those yields move higher and trying to differentiate our fixed income exposures to recognize credit risk (non-Treasury security exposure) as detrimental to overall returns in a Risk-Off environment.
Headline Economic & Market Data - Data Links
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Economic Growth - Annualized Real GD https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2022-second-estimate
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Employment Situation - Unemployment Rate https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02032023.htm
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Inflation (CPI) - Year over Year https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_02142023.htm
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U.S. Retail Sales - Month over Month https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html
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U.S. Pending Home Sales - Month over Month https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-improved-for-second-straight-month-up-8-1-in-january
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U.S. Pending Home Sales - Year over Year https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-improved-for-second-straight-month-up-8-1-in-january
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U.S. Median Home Sales Price https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-descended-0-7-in-january
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10-Year Treasury Rate https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=all&data=yieldAll
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Federal Funds Rate https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20230201a1.pdf
DISCLOSURE (Click links for sources. If in print, sources available upon request). Calculations & Definitions available upon request. Investment Grade Bonds measured by the S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. S&P 500 Total Return Index**. *Trailing returns as of 02/28/2023 and are annualized returns if over 1-Year. See “Model Disclosure” page for important disclosures and information – Total Period Measured 12/31/2016 – 02/28/2023. “Inception” refers to Inception to Date. Inception calculation assumes end of day market prices on 12/30/2016 for starting period values to calculate Inception to Date figures. Performance presented net of highest advisory fee. Views and opinions are of Alternative Capitalis, LLC and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation(s). The results do not represent actual trading and actual results may significantly differ from the theoretical results presented. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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Disclosure
Alternative Capitalis, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented herein is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. *101 Federal Street, Suite 1956A, Boston, MA 02210 is Alternative Capitalis, LLC’s client facing address. All books, records, receipts, correspondence (mailing address) and day to day operations are located at 1565 West St, Wrentham, MA 02093. For more information, please visit https://www.altcapitalis.com/disclosure and https://www.altcapitalis.com/fee-table-for-services.
Model Performance Disclosure: The performance shown represents only the results of Alternative Capitalis, LLC’s model portfolios for the relevant time period and do not represent the results of actual trading of investor assets. Model portfolio performance is the result of the application of the Alternative Capitalis, LLC’s proprietary investment process. Model performance has inherent limitations. The results are theoretical and do not reflect any investor’s actual experience with owning, trading or managing an actual investment account. Thus, the performance shown does not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors had or might have had on decision making if actual investor money had been managed. Model results are based on discretionary trading that are not purely quantitative or rules based. Model portfolio performance is shown net of the model advisory fee of 1.25%, the highest fee charged by Alternative Capitalis, LLC. This reflects a change from Alternative Capitalis, LLC highest fee charged to a client(s) account from 1% to 1.25% annually. April 1, 2018 model performance to most recent date presented adjusts for the higher 1.25% annual fee. Model portfolio performance is shown net of the sample trading costs based on our at the time Custodian’s, TD Ameritrade Institutional, trading costs. Performance does not reflect the deduction of other fees or expenses, including but not limited to brokerage fees, custodial fees and fees and expenses charged by mutual funds and other investment companies. Performance results shown include the reinvestment of dividends and interest on cash balances where applicable. The data used to calculate the model performance was obtained from sources deemed reliable and then organized and presented by Alternative Capitalis, LLC. The performance calculations have not been audited by any third party. Actual performance of client portfolios may differ materially due to the timing related to additional client deposits or withdrawals and the actual deployment and investment of a client portfolio, the reinvestment of dividends, the length of time various positions are held, the client’s objectives and restrictions, and fees and expenses incurred by any specific individual portfolio. The performance calculations are based on a hypothetical investment of $100,000 for both the model and benchmarks presented.
Removal of Certain Benchmark Fees as of January 31, 2023: This will not impact how the hypothetical returns are presented for the Model Performance Returns. Benchmark performance calculations for reports generated prior to January 31, 2023, were inclusive of the highest possible advisory fee charged to any client(s) account, 1.25% annually. This reduced the total return of the investable benchmark by an annualized rate of 1.25%. Effective January 31, 2023, the benchmarks no longer include the assumption of an advisory fee, and therefore the benchmark returns are no longer reduced by an advisory fee as of the trailing hypothetical results starting January 31, 2023, and thereafter. This means that reports on and after January 31, 2023, will report hypothetical benchmarks without the advisory fee included. The benchmarks trailing results presented on and after January 31, 2023, that previously included this hypothetical fee are now reported with advisory fees of 0.00% assumed. Month end reports, for example on December 31, 2022, will not be updated to restate this difference of removal of hypothetical advisory fees on the benchmarks. Performance presentation of rolling periods for as of dates on and after January 31, 2023, will backfill benchmark performance as if there were never an additional 1.25% annually deducted from the benchmarks. This will otherwise, if all periods were restated prior to January 31, 2023, cause the benchmarks to produce better results by an approximate annualized 1.25%.
Domestic Benchmarks: The Model performance results shown are compared to the performance of two series of hypothetical, albeit directly investable, benchmarks which we refer to as Domestic Benchmarks and Global Benchmarks. The Domestic Benchmark is a blended ETF (Exchange-Traded-Fund) portfolio comprised of the following two ETF’s symbols, SPY & AGG, and are described below. The benchmarks used are investable ETFs, presented using hypothetical results. The ETF symbol SPY (SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust) which seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500® Index (the “Index”). Visit https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY for more information about the ETF. The S&P 500® Index results do not reflect fees and expenses and you typically cannot invest in an index. The ETF symbol AGG (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF). The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of the total U.S. investment-grade bond market. (the “Index”). Visit https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239458/ishares-core-total-us-bond-market-etf for more information about the ETF. The index composed of the total U.S. investment-grade bond market results do not reflect fees and expenses and you typically cannot invest in an index. The benchmark is blended representing a weighting of a percentage (%) to SPY and percentage (%) to AGG based on the respective model weights further below. The benchmarks are set to rebalance at each year end. Except for year end, and unless otherwise indicated, the benchmarks are not rebalanced to maintain their original weighting over the period measured. Instead, they are comprised of the starting allocation of each respective trailing hypothetical result presented and will shift given the prevailing market environment over the period measured.
Domestic Benchmark Return Comparison: To benchmark the results, the ETF (exchange-traded-fund) symbol SPY (SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust) which seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500® Index (the “Index”). The S&P 500 was chosen as it is generally well recognized as an indicator or representation of the stock market in general and includes a cross section of equity holdings. In addition, the ETF symbol AGG was chosen as a benchmark. The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of the total U.S. investment-grade bond market. The total U.S. investment-grade bond market was chosen as it is generally well recognized as an indicator or representation of the bond market in general and includes a cross section of debt holdings. For each respective model benchmark the performance measurement weightings are as follows to SPY / AGG %: 20/80, 30/70, 40/60, 50/50, 60/40, 70/30, 80/20, 90/10 % respectively for Ultra Conservative, Conservative, Moderate, Balanced, Growth & Income, Growth, Aggressive, Ultra Aggressive.
Global Benchmarks: The Model performance results shown are compared to the performance of two series of hypothetical, albeit directly investable, benchmarks which we refer to as Domestic Benchmarks and Global Benchmarks. The Global Benchmark is a blended ETF (exchange-traded-fund) portfolio comprised of the following three ETF’s symbols, VT, BNDX & BND, which is described below. The benchmarks used are investable ETFs, presented using hypothetical results. The ETF symbol BNDX (Vanguard Total International Bond ETF) attempts to track the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Float Adjusted RIC Capped Index (USD Hedged). Visit https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/BNDX for more information about the ETF. The ETF symbol VT (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF) seeks to track the performance of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, which covers both well-established and still-developing markets. Visit https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VT for more information about the ETF. The ETF symbol BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) attempts to track the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Index and attempted to track the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index through December 31, 2009. Visit https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/BND for more information about the ETF. The benchmark is blended representing a weighting of a percentage (%) to BND, percentage (%) to VT, and percentage (%) to BNDX based on the respective model weights further below. The benchmarks are rebalanced over periods that include a calendar year end date, on the calendar year end date, to their original weighting over the period measured. The Benchmarks are comprised of the starting allocation and will shift given the prevailing market environment over the period measured.
Global Benchmark Return Comparison: To benchmark the results, the ETF symbol BNDX (Vanguard Total International Bond ETF) attempts to track the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Float Adjusted RIC Capped Index (USD Hedged). The Vanguard Total International Bond ETF was chosen as it is generally well recognized as an indicator or representation of the global bond market, ex-U.S. bonds, and tracks an investment-grade, non-USD denominated bond index, hedged against currency fluctuations for U.S. investors. The ETF symbol VT (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF) seeks to track the performance of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, which covers both well-established and still-developing markets. The Vanguard Total World Stock ETF was chosen as it is generally well recognized as an indicator or representation of the global stock market and tracks a market-cap-weighted index of global stocks covering approximately 98% of the domestic and emerging market capitalization. The ETF symbol BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) attempts to track the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Index and attempted to track the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index through December 31, 2009. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF was chosen as it is generally well recognized as an indicator or representation of the U.S. Domestic bond market, and tracks a broad, market-value-weighted index of U.S. dollar-denominated, investment-grade, taxable, fixed-income securities with maturities of at least one year. For each respective model benchmark the performance measurement weightings are as follows to BND/VT/BNDX %: 66/20/14, 57.8/30/12.3, 49.5/40/10.5, 41.2/50/8.8, 33/60/7, 24.7/70/5.3, 16.5/80/3.5 and 8.2/90/1.8 % respectively for the Ultra Conservative, Conservative, Moderate, Balanced, Growth & Income, Growth, Aggressive and Ultra Aggressive Global Benchmarks.
OPTIONS TRADING RISK DISCLOSURE: Options Trading – Both the purchase and writing (selling) of options contracts – involves a significant degree of risk not suitable for all investors. Investors should carefully consider the inherent risks and financial obligations associated with options trading as further detailed in the Options Clearing Corporate booklet “Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.”
The results do not represent actual trading and actual results may significantly differ from the theoretical results presented